Managers need to know how cumulative wildland fuels treatments of varying types and ages alter landscape-level probabilities of burning within and beyond the extent of treated areas in order to assess performance of management activities. Characterizing reduced impacts and avoided losses due to treatments is crucial for cost-effectiveness analysis. Here, we propose to evaluate fuel treatment effectiveness within a risk-based framework, using comparative exposure analysis to assess fire outcomes under treated and modeled untreated landscapes. A significant advancement of our work is the estimation of changed spatial probabilities of landscape burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for real wildland fire-affected landscapes, coupled with nationally consistent maps of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) useful for informing fire management decision-making. We will pair satellite-derived Earth observation data (fire spread, burn severity and fuels data derived from MODIS and Landsat) with stochastic wildfire simulation modeling to provide geospatial analyses of how probability of burning and threats to HVRAs have been altered by fuels treatments in numerous real wildfires. We will compile a comprehensive dataset of treatment effectiveness on fire-affected landscapes and synthesize results to provide decision support tools: a knowledge base characterizing the conditions under which treatments are thought to be effective, and a treatment design taxonomy helping managers to craft fuel management strategies as a function of multiple ecological and socioeconomic variables, including fire regime, spatial pattern and distribution of values-at-risk, and management opportunities. Data availability and opportunities for analyzing the linkages between fuel treatments and enhanced suppression activities, and the relationships between climate change, extreme fire weather, and fuel treatment effectiveness will be explored. Our results will inform project-level planning, programmatic evaluation of fuel treatment effectiveness, and be directly relevant to ongoing large-scale planning efforts, including the Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program and the Wildland Fire Cohesive Strategy.