Supported by the NASA Applied Sciences Program, this project seeks to advance the capability of snowmelt flood prediction in the Red River of the North basin (RRB) to the development, testing, and operational stages via a partnership between the University of New Hampshire (UNH), North Dakota State University (NDSU), the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC), the USACE Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL), and the USDA Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory. The goal of this project is to improve the operational flood prediction capability of the NCRFC in the RRB using satellite observations that capture the magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of snow and soil moisture. NWS hydrologists have concluded that insufficient snow measurements and incomplete understanding of snowmelt processes during soil freeze and thaw events in the RRB inhibit their ability to improve flood prediction, especially considering that the vast majority of floods on the Red River occur during the snowmelt season. Satellite observations provide increased temporal resolution and spatial coverage beyond currently used data sources, and will be used to update the NCRFC models. The potential economic benefits of these modifications are significant given the current difficulty of consistently forecasting these floods and the history of damaging flood events in the region.
Geographic Focus
Red River of the North Basin (Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Manitoba, Canada)
Principal Investigator
Jennifer M. Jacobs - University of New Hampshire (UNH)
Project Team
Samuel E. Tuttle - University of New Hampshire (UNH)
Ronny Schroeder - University of New Hampshire (UNH)
Eunsang Cho - University of New Hampshire (UNH)
Carrie Vuyovich - USACE Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL)
Xinhua Jia - North Dakota State University (NDSU)
Michael Cosh - USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS)
Mike DeWeese - NOAA NWS North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC)
Pedro Restrepo - Consulting Engineer (formerly NCRFC)
Collaborators & Stakeholders
NOAA NWS North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC)
NOAA National Water Center (formerly National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC))
Technical Summary
The Red River of the North basin (RRB), located in the north central U.S. and southern Canada, is vulnerable to frequent snowmelt floods due to its flat terrain and low permeability soil. In recent decades there has been an increase in the frequency of large floods (http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2011.621895), which have led to significant damages to floodplain communities (including an estimated $4 billion in the major 1997 flood alone; http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ohd/Dis_Svy/RedR_Apr97/TOC.htm).
The NOAA NWS North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) is responsible for providing river flood forecasts in the region (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/forecasts.php), which are used to issue warnings to protect people and assets. This is accomplished with river forecast models, which estimate the volume and stage of water flowing through the Red River and its tributaries. These models estimate the amount of runoff a precipitation or snowmelt event generates, compute how the water will move downstream, and then predict the flow of water at a given location throughout the forecast period. To forecast precipitation or snowmelt events, the river model requires initial state variables (e.g., information on snowpack, snow covered area, soil moisture, etc.) and uses both observed and forecast precipitation and temperature to predict the river levels. Thus, accurate observations of snow and soil moisture are important for accurate flood forecasting.
Unfortunately, the region has relatively sparse observational data for snow and soil moisture. However, satellite remote sensing, especially from passive microwave sensors, can detect these hydrological states at increased the spatial coverage and temporal coverage compared to currently available observations. Additionally, passive microwave NASA products have a proven track record of providing reliable information in the Northern Plains.
The objective of this project is to improve the NCRFC’s operational flood prediction in the RRB by using these satellite products to update the NWS’s operational forecasting models (SNOW-17 and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) models; http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/general/indexdoc.htm) with spatially distributed estimates of state variables including snow water equivalent, snow melt phase, and snow covered area, and meltwater partitioning parameters based on antecedent soil moisture. Improvements to NCRFC forecasting skill will be evaluated using retrospective analyses (2002 to 2013) using the NCRFC models with and without remote sensing observations. Operational forecasts that include satellite information will be conducted during the project period (2017 to 2018). In order to accomplish these goals, the project tasks are to:
(1) Develop the satellite snow and soil moisture datasets needed for the flood forecast application.
(2) Demonstrate the value of satellite observations for improving forecasts of snowmelt in the Red River Basin, using the NCRFC food forecast models.
(3) Advance application readiness to operational status through end-user (NCRFC) engagement.
Related Research Areas